NFL win probability explorer
ESPN win probability after every play, 2016–2026 (the seasons ESPN has it for). Sort any column; click a game for the full chart.
How the numbers are computed
- Win probability
- ESPN's per-play estimate for the home team, as drawn on the gamecast chart. Every play counts, including odd model values.
- Excitement
- Sum of |change| between plays, each step weighted by 4·m·(1−m) where m is the middle of the step. A swing near 50% counts fully, a swing between 0% and 10% barely counts.
- Back-and-forth
- Moves smaller than 15 points are ignored; then the length of the up-and-down path minus the net distance from start to end. A one-way run scores 0; 50→90→10→90 scores 160.
- Score (0–100)
- The excitement columns show a score instead of the raw number: the share of all games in the data whose value in that column is lower (filters do not change it). 99 = more exciting than 99% of games, 0 = no game is lower (many games are completely flat in the last minutes). Shown as a plain number, not a percent. Cell shading follows the score.
- Why 2016–2026
- ESPN's play-by-play feed carries a win-probability series for these seasons: 2015 has it for 1 of 267 games, 2014 and earlier for none. That is why this covers the last 10 seasons plus 2026 so far.
- Windows
- Q4, last 5:00, last 2:00, last 1:00 use the regulation clock. "Whole game" covers regulation + overtime by default and can be switched to regulation only or OT rows only.
- Blown lead score (0–100)
- For the last 2:00 of regulation, from the winner's side. Every play gets 100 × S × L and the best play counts. S = log10(0.5 / winner's win probability) / 2, between 0 and 1, so ≥50% → 0 (no lead was blown), 10% → 0.35, 1% → 0.85, ≤0.5% → 1. L = 1 − seconds left / 120, so 0:00 → 1, 1:00 → 0.5, 2:00 → 0. That raw value is then turned into a score the same way as excitement: 100 × the share of all games with a strictly lower raw value, so 99.9 means this game blew a bigger lead than almost every other game, and games with no blown lead score 0.
- Loser's peak, time left then
- The loser's win probability and the clock on the play that gave the best blown lead score.
- The 99.9% ceiling
- ESPN's chart is clamped at 0.1% / 99.9%: 33,000 of 501,341 rows sit exactly at 0.001 or 0.999, so 99.9% means "at least 99.9%" and many games tie there.
- Repaired values
- A few model values are repaired before measuring (clock 0:00 with an untimed down, overtime scoring rows); the original is kept in the data. Pro Bowls excluded; ties are included.
Unofficial project, not affiliated with the NFL or ESPN. Win probabilities: ESPN's public play-by-play feed.